Financial Insights

Moody’s sets India’s growth forecast for 2022 at 9.5%

Moody’s Financial Services has revised its forecast for India’s GDP growth forecast to 9.5% for calendar year 2022 from its earlier estimate of 7%. The basis for such revision is the strong growth in Indian economy, stronger than expected reversal from the pandemic and impressive recovery from lockdowns. Its estimate for the coming fiscal year, starting from 1st April, is 8.4%.

“We have raised our 2022 calendar year growth forecast for India to 9.5 per cent from 7 per cent, and maintained our forecast for 5.5 per cent growth in 2023. This translates into 8.4 per cent and 6.5 per cent in fiscal years 2022-23 and 2023-24, respectively,” the company said in its report.

The company said that the Goods & Services Tax collection and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed ‘strong momentum’. The company added that its forecast maintained a restricted sequential growth in several sectors which shows upwards growth potential.

“… the economy is estimated to have surpassed the pre-Covid level of GDP by more than 5 per cent in the last quarter of 2021. Sales tax collection, retail activity and PMIs suggest solid momentum. However, high oil prices and supply distortions remain a drag on growth,” the company added in its report.

The growth projection by the company in 2023 is 5.5%.

Highlight by Aman Agarwal.

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